Bitcoin Faces Crucial $90,000 Test Amidst Growing Onchain Stress and December Rebound Hopes

Bitcoin Struggles to Keep Its Footing Near Ninety Thousand Dollars

Bitcoin entered the first week of December 2025 in a tight spot. The price of the leading cryptocurrency hovered around $89,294, unable to climb back over the key $90,000 mark. Just two months earlier, in October 2025, the price reached an all-time peak of nearly $126,000. Now, traders watch this level closely to see where the market moves next.

Trading writer Michaël van de Poppe warned that the current price structure is tightening quickly. He pointed out that if the price cannot break and hold above $90,000, a deeper fall could follow. A drop like that might push the price down toward the $80,000 support level. Many market participants are actively hedging their positions in case this downward slide happens.

This price drop represents the largest pullback since the last major bear market ended. While some traders fear a larger crash, others view the drop as a normal pause after a very strong run. The battle at this level is also affecting other digital assets, with coins like Ethereum and XRP experiencing their own price swings while remaining tied to the general direction of Bitcoin.

Why Blockchain Activity Looks Like the Start of the Last Bear Market

On December 7, 2025, the blockchain analysis firm Glassnode published a weekly report about the network's health. The report showed that the network is experiencing a high amount of transaction stress. This stress looks very similar to the conditions seen at the start of the 2022 crypto winter, which has caused some concern among long-term holders.

Glassnode reported that more than 25% of the total circulating supply of Bitcoin is currently underwater. This means that a quarter of all existing coins were bought at prices higher than the current market rate. Specifically, these coins are trading below the 0.75 supply-quantile cost basis, which is a key metric that researchers use to track investor stress.

Additionally, the seven-day moving average of supply held at a loss reached roughly 7.1 million coins. These numbers show that a large portion of buyers are facing paper losses on their investments. When so many holders are in the red, the risk of panic selling rises, as newer buyers might decide to cut their losses and exit the market.

Why Today's Market Setup Differs From Past Crypto Winters

Although the current blockchain numbers look like they did in early 2022, the underlying reasons are very different. In 2022, the crypto market collapsed because of internal failures like the Terra network crash and the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange. At the same time, the Federal Reserve was rapidly raising interest rates to fight inflation, which hurt all risky assets.

In contrast, the market in late 2025 is supported by institutional spot exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries. These large financial products did not exist in the same way during the previous cycle. This means that while some blockchain metrics match past patterns, the actual buyers and sellers in the market today have different goals and much deeper pockets.

The recent price drop is heavily tied to macroeconomic factors and changing expectations about central bank interest rate cuts. Institutional flows into funds can shift quickly, but they do not always mean a long-term trend has broken. Understanding this difference helps explain why many researchers do not expect a repeat of the multi-year bear market seen in the past.

Why Some Research Teams Expect a December Price Turnaround

Despite the stress on the blockchain, several institutional research groups believe that December could bring a price recovery. On December 7, 2025, K33 Research published a report written by their head of research, Vetle Lunde. He argued that the market has overreacted to distant threats and that the deep drop has pushed investor fear to an extreme level.

Lunde explained that this extreme fear often creates a high-probability buying opportunity for patient investors. He believes the current pullback is a temporary pause that sets the stage for a rebound before the end of the year. Other firms also pointed to historical patterns where buyers accumulate coins during the winter holidays, helping to push prices higher.

A market outlook published by Coinbase on December 5, 2025, also supported this positive view. The company stated that the market could enter a recovery phase in December because of several key factors that improve financial conditions. These factors suggest that the selling pressure from long-term holders is starting to slow down.

• Improving global liquidity conditions and a rising M2 money supply.
• A significant reduction in selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders.
• Seasonal investor accumulation that typically occurs before the new year.

Bitcoin Faces a Crucial Ninety Thousand Dollar Test Amid Onchain Stress and December Rebound Hopes

The coming weeks will show whether the market can push past the current hurdles. If buyers can reclaim and hold the price above $90,000, it could clear the path for a stronger year-end finish. However, if the price fails to break this level, a test of the $80,000 support area remains a real possibility for traders.

Meanwhile, other parts of the digital asset market are showing mixed signals. Ethereum recently traded between $3,000 and $3,100, showing a small weekly gain but remaining down for the year. XRP is trading near $2 after falling from its yearly high, while Dogecoin has seen its market value drop significantly to around $25 billion.

Changes in government policy also create a quiet backdrop for the market. The Trump administration released a National Security Strategy that did not mention Bitcoin or blockchain technology, which surprised some policy watchers. For now, the market remains focused on the $90,000 level as the main guide for where prices will go next.