Policy and long-term yield
Waiting for DFF and DGS10 observations…
Bitcoin and Macro Data Overlay
Put Bitcoin beside rates, inflation, Treasury yields, and money supply without claiming that a shared chart proves cause and effect.
Official macro observations
Source statusChecking…Never filled with invented data
Last observed—Source retrieval time
Records shown—Current response
UseResearchNo trading or account action
Loading primary-source observations
Connecting to the public source…
The page remains readable if the source is unavailable.
Daily data table
Loading the daily snapshot…Latest Bitcoin and U.S. macro figures
Each row keeps its own observation date. “Latest” does not mean every series was measured on the same day.
| Series | Latest observation | Observation date | Comparison | Change | Reading limit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading current observations… | |||||
CPI level and 12-month change
Waiting for the latest consumer-price index…
Different clocks, separate claims
Waiting for M2 and BTC/USD observations…
Analysis guide
What each line can—and cannot—tell you
Macro indicators can describe the environment around Bitcoin. They do not identify one cause for one price move.
| Indicator | Question it helps answer | A rise may indicate | It does not prove |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effective federal funds rate | What overnight rate are U.S. banks effectively paying? | Tighter short-term policy conditions | That every loan, bond, or crypto position has the same funding cost |
| 10-year Treasury yield | What yield does the market require on a long U.S. government maturity? | Changed growth, inflation, term-premium, or supply expectations | Which one of those forces moved the yield |
| Consumer Price Index | How has a broad basket of consumer prices changed? | A higher price level; the 12-month rate shows its pace | That every household or Bitcoin holder faced the same inflation |
| M2 money stock | How has a broad measure of money-like balances changed? | More deposits and liquid balances in the measured aggregate | That the added amount flowed into Bitcoin |
| BTC/USD close | Where did the selected public Bitcoin market finish that interval? | A higher marginal traded price | That macro data caused the move or that all venues matched it |
How to use a macro overlay
Align dates before interpreting lines
Bitcoin trades continuously. FRED series may update daily, monthly, or after a release delay. The table keeps the original date attached and does not fill a missing macro day with a made-up number.
Compare changes, not visual slopes
The chart gives every macro series its own scale so all lines remain visible. That means the steepest-looking line is not automatically the largest economic move. Use the dated table for exact values and comparisons.
Correlation is not cause
Rates and liquidity can shape risk markets, but two lines moving together do not prove one caused the other. Compare the overlay with the annotated Bitcoin price chart and the Bitcoin volatility calculator.
How often the figures change
Daily series
DFF and DGS10 normally carry daily observations, though weekends, holidays, and publication timing create gaps. BTC/USD trades continuously, while the displayed history uses discrete closes.
Monthly series
CPIAUCSL and M2SL are monthly. Their latest observation can therefore be older than the rate and Bitcoin rows. Revisions may change earlier values.
One dashboard, five separate claims
A careful reading names the series, unit, observation date, comparison window, and transformation. It never calls a CPI index level “the inflation rate” or treats M2 growth as money that must enter Bitcoin.
Before sharing the chart
Five checks that prevent a weak macro claim
- Name the series.“Rates rose” is incomplete without saying which rate and maturity.
- Match the dates.A monthly release should not be presented as a same-day Bitcoin signal.
- State the transformation.Level, daily change, basis-point change, and 12-month percentage change answer different questions.
- Look for another explanation.Flows, leverage, regulation, market structure, and idiosyncratic news can move Bitcoin too.
- Avoid a forecast.Historical co-movement is not a reliable price target or trading instruction.
Update and verification method
Original dates and units stay attached
Each FRED series retains its official identifier and observation date. Values with a missing marker are omitted instead of interpolated. Because release schedules differ, the newest Bitcoin close may be later than the newest macro observation. Revisions can also change earlier macro values. A serious comparison records the retrieval date, selected window, transformation, and whether the question concerns levels or rates of change.
This product uses FRED data but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Compare Bitcoin and macro data without inventing causation
Macro series arrive on different schedules and use different units. Align dates and transformations before comparing them with a market that trades continuously.
Levels and changes answer different questions
A CPI index level is not the inflation rate. A Treasury yield level is not its daily change. M2 stock is not a flow into Bitcoin.
- Name the official series identifier.
- State whether you use level or percentage change.
- Keep release delay and revisions visible.
Correlation can be unstable
Two lines can move together for one window and apart in another. Policy expectations, leverage, ETF flows, exchange events, and crypto-specific news can overlap.
- Test more than one window.
- Look for lead and lag assumptions.
- Write down a competing explanation.
What the four macro series represent
| Series | Measurement | Frequency issue | Avoid saying |
|---|---|---|---|
| DFF | Effective federal funds rate | Daily business observations | All borrowing costs |
| DGS10 | 10-year Treasury yield | Market days and missing dates | A fixed future rate |
| CPIAUCSL | Consumer price index level | Monthly and revisable | The current inflation rate |
| M2SL | Broad money stock level | Monthly and method-dependent | Money available to buy Bitcoin |